🗳️ Elections

Will Wales announce an independence referendum?

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2030Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
20%
No
80%
No (80%)Yes (20%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
$201

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 20%. Kalshi has moved up 5pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If Wales agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Government, UK Parliament, or a legally authorized Welsh authority to hold a referendum on Welsh independence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
20%
probability of YES
Kalshi
20%Check
TGWA
Create Widget
Resolution
Jan 1, 2030
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity$201
CategoryElections
StatusOpen