🎯 Other

Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026?

Live
Resolves Jan 8, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
5%
No
95%
No (95%)Yes (5%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
$2k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 5%.

About this market

If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
5%
probability of YES
Kalshi
5%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 8, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity$2k
CategoryOther
StatusOpen