Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 3%. Polymarket has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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