🗳️ Elections

Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands?

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
7%
No
93%
No (93%)Yes (7%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
$2k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 7%. Kalshi has moved down 17pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the US agrees to or announces recognition of Argentina's sovereignty over the Falkland Islands before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
7%
probability of YES
Kalshi
7%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity$2k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen