🗳️ Elections

Will the US lose measles elimination status in 2026?

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
82%
No
18%
No (18%)Yes (82%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$99
Liquidity
$3k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 82%. Kalshi has moved up 7pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If PAHO's Regional Verification Commission (RVC) determines that endemic measles transmission has been re-established in the United States after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
82%
probability of YES
Kalshi
82%Check
TGWA
Create Widget
Resolution
Jan 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$99
Liquidity$3k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen