🎯 Other

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2027Polymarket
Volume-weighted avg
17%
No
83%
No (83%)Yes (17%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
$321k
Liquidity
$828k

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 17%. Polymarket has moved up 2pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
17%
probability of YES
Polymarket
17%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$321k
Liquidity$828k
CategoryOther
StatusOpen