🗳️ Elections

2026: Trump's dream year?

Live

Resolves Dec 31, 2027Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

98%

No (98%)Yes (2%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 2%. Kalshi has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If **ALL** of the following occur: 1. Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND 2. Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND 3. U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND 4. The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026 then the market resolves to Yes.